The State Council's adjustment of project capital ratio will benefit real estate and construction ma
Time：2023/7/5 11:26:55
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On April 29th, the State Council announced a reduction in the proportion of project capital in industries such as commodity housing. Stimulated by this news, more than 900 million funds flooded into the real estate development and operation sector yesterday, far exceeding other industries.
The focus on funds has also led to the highest growth in the real estate sector. In terms of individual stocks, Jindi Group, Financial Street, Overseas Chinese City A, Vanke A, and others have entered the top ten net inflows of funds.
Analysts believe that after this adjustment, the construction machinery and real estate industries are expected to benefit.
Adjusting to reflect the pressure of retention
For this adjustment, the market recognizes it as a macro positive.
Feng Yuming, chief macroeconomic analyst of Orient Securities, said that the adjustment of the capital ratio of investment projects is a new major measure taken by the government to ensure economic growth, which solves an important factor that may restrict the future growth of fixed assets investment.
Secondly, the adjustment of the capital ratio of investment projects reflects the principle of holding and pressing. The areas where the capital ratio is reduced are mainly concentrated in the energy, infrastructure, and service industries, which are all industries that truly require investment; However, the capital ratio of high energy consuming and polluting industries has increased instead of decreasing, which helps to dispel market concerns about the rebound in investment in these industries and the formation of more overcapacity in the future.
Once again, the adjustment of the capital ratio of investment projects will help maintain the current momentum of high investment growth. In the first quarter, urban fixed assets investment increased by 28.6%, and the actual investment growth rate reached 30.2%, basically reaching the highest level in recent years. After the adjustment of the capital ratio of the investment project, the investment willingness of the investors will be strengthened, enabling the current momentum of high investment growth to continue.
Ba Shusong, Deputy Director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that the focus of expanding domestic demand this time is to support large-scale infrastructure industries. After reducing capital requirements, their financing capacity will improve, and in the next step, they will have more room for credit support, which should have a positive effect.
Two industries are expected to benefit
The proportion of capital has increased and decreased, so the impact on the industry is also different. Huatai Securities stated that it is positive for industries that are declining, while it is bearish for industries that are rising.
Feng Yuming stated that a decrease in the proportion of capital invested in commodity housing will have a positive effect on stimulating the rebound of real estate investment.
Analysts from Shenyin Wanguo Securities also stated that the government's previous policies mainly targeted homebuyers, while this time targeting developers, aimed at increasing the enthusiasm of enterprises to start construction and invest, the policy intensity exceeded expectations.
The rebound in early real estate sales has strengthened developers' confidence. This reduction in capital ratio can increase the level of real estate investment leverage, while also suggesting that the central government will continue to maintain a loose monetary policy environment, which is greatly beneficial for the real estate industry; The expected rate of decline in construction area this year is expected to decrease to 2%, and the growth rate of real estate investment is expected to increase to 9.8%, indicating continued optimism for the industry.
Haitong Securities believes that most of the industries that have decided to reduce their capital ratio at this meeting are related to infrastructure construction, which is a key construction industry with an investment of 4 trillion yuan. Its investment directly affects the development of the construction machinery industry. Reducing the capital ratio is beneficial for the initiation and start-up of infrastructure construction projects mentioned above, and can effectively stimulate market demand in the construction machinery industry, which is a favorable policy.